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Podunavac vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Podunavac
Podunavac
FT
0 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
3/10/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podunavac41%
×Draw28%
Omladinac NB31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podunavac
1.24
Omladinac NB
1.04

Podunavac creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 103 away

creates per match

Podunavac
1.38
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Podunavac
0.98
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Podunavac+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podunavac ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Podunavac or draw
69%
Podunavac or Omladinac NB
72%
Draw or Omladinac NB
59%

Winning margin

Podunavac wins by 2+
18%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Podunavac 1+ goals
71%
Podunavac 2+ goals
35%
Podunavac 3+ goals
13%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
65%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
28%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Podunavac (draw refunded)
57%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podunavac attack 1.38 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Podunavac scores more
41%
level
28%
Omladinac NB scores more
31%

Podunavac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podunavac vs Omladinac NB

Podunavac and Omladinac NB drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Podunavac in Belegiš.