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Podrinje Janja vs Zvijezda 09 — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
5/20/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 32Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja32%
×Draw28%
Zvijezda 0940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
1.07
Zvijezda 09
1.25

Zvijezda 09 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 79 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
Zvijezda 09
1.27

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
Zvijezda 09
1.22

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Zvijezda 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
60%
Podrinje Janja or Zvijezda 09
72%
Draw or Zvijezda 09
68%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
12%
Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
66%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
29%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
9%
Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
71%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
36%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
44%
Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.27 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
32%
level
28%
Zvijezda 09 scores more
40%

Zvijezda 09 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Podrinje Janja 1–1 Zvijezda 09

Podrinje Janja and Zvijezda 09 drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.