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Podrinje Janja vs Radnik Bijeljina — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
0 – 0
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
4/22/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 26Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Podrinje Janja32%
×Draw29%
Radnik Bijeljina39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
1.02
Radnik Bijeljina
1.16

Radnik Bijeljina creates 14% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
Radnik Bijeljina
1.09

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
Radnik Bijeljina
1.12

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
61%
Podrinje Janja or Radnik Bijeljina
71%
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
68%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
12%
Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
64%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
27%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
8%
Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
69%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
32%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
45%
Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
32%
level
29%
Radnik Bijeljina scores more
39%

Radnik Bijeljina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Podrinje Janja 0–0 Radnik Bijeljina

Podrinje Janja and Radnik Bijeljina drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.