Podrinje Janja 1–3 Leotar: Result & Stats

Podrinje Janja

FT

1 – 3

Leotar

8/29/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 4Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja37%

×Draw29%

Leotar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podrinje JanjaExpected goals in this matchLeotar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.06

Podrinje Janja

1.11

Leotar

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 63 away

0.92

creates per match

0.89

1.23

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Podrinje Janja

0.92

Leotar

0.89

allows per match

Podrinje Janja

1.23

Leotar

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Leotar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Leotar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw

66%

Podrinje Janja or Leotar

71%

Draw or Leotar

63%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

15%

Leotar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

67%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

30%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

10%

Leotar 1+ goals

65%

Leotar 2+ goals

29%

Leotar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

52%

Leotar (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Leotar away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Leotar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Leotar attack 0.89 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more

37%

level

29%

Leotar scores more

34%

Podrinje Janja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff