Podrinje Janja 0–1 Famos Vojkovići: Result & Stats

Podrinje Janja

FT

0 – 1

Famos Vojkovići

9/17/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 8Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja47%

×Draw27%

Famos Vojkovići26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podrinje JanjaExpected goals in this matchFamos Vojkovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.98

Podrinje Janja

1.43

Famos Vojkovići

0.98

Podrinje Janja creates 46% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 66 away

0.92

creates per match

0.73

1.23

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Podrinje Janja

0.92

Famos Vojkovići

0.73

allows per match

Podrinje Janja

1.23

Famos Vojkovići

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Famos Vojkovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw

74%

Podrinje Janja or Famos Vojkovići

73%

Draw or Famos Vojkovići

53%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

23%

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

76%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

42%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

17%

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals

62%

Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals

26%

Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

65%

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Famos Vojkovići away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Famos Vojkovići defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.43

Famos Vojkovići attack 0.73 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more

47%

level

27%

Famos Vojkovići scores more

26%

Podrinje Janja at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff