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Podrinje Janja vs Budućnost Pilica — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
4/30/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 26Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Podrinje Janja70%
×Draw18%
Budućnost Pilica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
2.29
Budućnost Pilica
0.81

Podrinje Janja creates 183% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
Budućnost Pilica
0.40

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
Budućnost Pilica
3.67

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Budućnost Pilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
88%
Podrinje Janja or Budućnost Pilica
82%
Draw or Budućnost Pilica
30%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
47%
Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
90%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
66%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
40%
Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
56%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
19%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
86%
Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
70%
level
18%
Budućnost Pilica scores more
12%

Podrinje Janja at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Podrinje Janja 0–1 Budućnost Pilica

Budućnost Pilica beat Podrinje Janja 1-0 in 1st League - RS on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.