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Podlesianka vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
1 – 2
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
9/27/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka35%
×Draw23%
Stilon Gorzów41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.52
Stilon Gorzów
1.67

Stilon Gorzów creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
59%
Podlesianka or Stilon Gorzów
77%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
65%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
17%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
78%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
45%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
20%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
81%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
50%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
46%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Podlesianka scores more
35%
level
23%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
41%

Stilon Gorzów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlesianka vs Stilon Gorzów

Stilon Gorzów beat Podlesianka 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.