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Podlesianka vs Śląsk Wrocław II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
0 – 1
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
9/17/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka23%
×Draw22%
Śląsk Wrocław II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.23
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.00

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.12

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
45%
Podlesianka or Śląsk Wrocław II
78%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
77%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
9%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
71%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
35%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
13%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
86%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
59%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
30%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Podlesianka scores more
23%
level
22%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
55%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Podlesianka 0 – 1 Śląsk Wrocław II

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Podlesianka 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.