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Podlesianka vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
0 – 0
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
9/21/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka43%
×Draw24%
Odra Bytom Odrzański33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.69
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.46

Podlesianka creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
67%
Podlesianka or Odra Bytom Odrzański
76%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
57%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
22%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
82%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
50%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
24%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
77%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
43%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
56%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podlesianka scores more
43%
level
24%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
33%

Podlesianka at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podlesianka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Podlesianka 0–0 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Podlesianka and Odra Bytom Odrzański drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.