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Podlesianka vs Miedź Legnica II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
M. Rosinski 40'
H. Krawczun 77'
W. Wawrzyniak 55'
S. Skrzypczak 47', 45+3'
M. Ciapa 44'
6/7/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka40%
×Draw23%
Miedź Legnica II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.64
Miedź Legnica II
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Miedź Legnica II
1.26

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Miedź Legnica II
1.74

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Miedź Legnica II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
63%
Podlesianka or Miedź Legnica II
77%
Draw or Miedź Legnica II
60%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
20%
Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
81%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
49%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
23%
Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
79%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
46%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
52%
Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Podlesianka scores more
40%
level
23%
Miedź Legnica II scores more
37%

Podlesianka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Podlesianka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. Rosinski
44'
M. Ciapa
45+3'
S. Skrzypczak
47'
S. Skrzypczak
55'
W. Wawrzyniak
77'
H. Krawczun

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Podlesianka 1 – 5 Miedź Legnica II

Miedź Legnica II beat Podlesianka 5-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 7, 2025.

Goals: M. Rosinski (40'), M. Ciapa (44'), S. Skrzypczak (45+3', 47'), W. Wawrzyniak (55'), H. Krawczun (77').

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.