Podlesianka 0–2 Lechia Zielona Góra: Result & Stats

Podlesianka

FT

0 – 2

Lechia Zielona Góra

8/3/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka34%

×Draw24%

Lechia Zielona Góra43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodlesiankaExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.69

Podlesianka

1.47

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.69

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

1.53

creates per match

1.50

1.88

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Podlesianka

1.53

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Podlesianka

1.88

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw

57%

Podlesianka or Lechia Zielona Góra

76%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

66%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+

16%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals

77%

Podlesianka 2+ goals

43%

Podlesianka 3+ goals

18%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

82%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

50%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)

44%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podlesianka scores more

34%

level

24%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

43%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff