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Podlesianka vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
2 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
8/17/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka32%
×Draw23%
Górnik Polkowice44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.43
Górnik Polkowice
1.71

Górnik Polkowice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
56%
Podlesianka or Górnik Polkowice
77%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
68%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
15%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
76%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
42%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
82%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
51%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
42%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Podlesianka scores more
32%
level
23%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
44%

Górnik Polkowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Podlesianka 2–1 Górnik Polkowice

Podlesianka beat Górnik Polkowice 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.