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Podlesianka vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
11/9/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka36%
×Draw24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.45
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
60%
Podlesianka or Goczałkowice Zdrój
76%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
64%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
17%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
77%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
42%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
18%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
79%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
46%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
47%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Podlesianka scores more
36%
level
24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
40%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlesianka vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

Podlesianka and Goczałkowice Zdrój drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.