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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
0 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
10/2/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska49%
×Draw23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.81
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 39% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 70 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
72%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
77%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
51%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
27%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
84%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
54%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
27%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
73%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
37%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
64%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
49%
level
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
28%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Podlasie Biała Podlaska and Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej in Biała Podlaska.