Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2–1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

P. Kuzma 81'

M. Kobialka 71'

J. Mazysz 62'

10/15/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski37%

×Draw25%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlęta Radzyń PodlaskiExpected goals in this matchPodlasie Biała Podlaska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.50

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.46

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

1.34

creates per match

1.39

1.62

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.34

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.39

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.62

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw

61%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

75%

Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

63%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

17%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

77%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

43%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

18%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

78%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

44%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

49%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

37%

level

25%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

39%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

T. Andrzejuk

34'

T. Andrzejuk

62'

J. Mazysz

71'

M. Kobialka

81'

P. Kuzma

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff