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Podkonice vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
6 – 1
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
9/1/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 14Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Podkonice68%
×Draw17%
Žarnovica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
2.60
Žarnovica
1.13

Podkonice creates 130% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Podkonice
2.07
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Podkonice
1.21
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
85%
Podkonice or Žarnovica
83%
Draw or Žarnovica
32%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
47%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
92%
Podkonice 2+ goals
73%
Podkonice 3+ goals
47%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
68%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
31%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
82%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 2.07 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.60

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Podkonice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Podkonice scores more
68%
level
17%
Žarnovica scores more
15%

Podkonice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podkonice vs Žarnovica

Podkonice beat Žarnovica 6-1 in 3. liga - Center on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.