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Podkonice vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
6/1/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Podkonice53%
×Draw25%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
1.62
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
0.96

Podkonice creates 69% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 54 away

creates per match

Podkonice
1.48
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Podkonice
0.85
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
78%
Podkonice or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
75%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
47%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
28%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
80%
Podkonice 2+ goals
48%
Podkonice 3+ goals
22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
62%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
25%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
70%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 1.48 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Podkonice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Podkonice scores more
53%
level
25%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
22%

Podkonice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Podkonice 3–0 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Podkonice beat Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3-0 in 3. liga - West on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.