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Podkonice vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
2 – 2
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
6/5/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 26Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Podkonice67%
×Draw18%
Liptovský Hrádok15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
2.46
Liptovský Hrádok
1.10

Podkonice creates 124% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

creates per match

Podkonice
2.07
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Podkonice
1.21
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
85%
Podkonice or Liptovský Hrádok
82%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
33%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
45%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
91%
Podkonice 2+ goals
70%
Podkonice 3+ goals
44%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
67%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
30%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
81%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 2.07 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.46

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Podkonice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Podkonice scores more
67%
level
18%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
15%

Podkonice at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Podkonice 2–2 Liptovský Hrádok

Podkonice and Liptovský Hrádok drew 2-2 in 3. liga - Center on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.