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Podkonice vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - West 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
11/3/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Podkonice57%
×Draw24%
Jednota Bánová19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
1.71
Jednota Bánová
0.89

Podkonice creates 92% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Podkonice
1.48
Jednota Bánová
0.93

allows per match

Podkonice
0.85
Jednota Bánová
1.93

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
81%
Podkonice or Jednota Bánová
76%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
43%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
31%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
82%
Podkonice 2+ goals
51%
Podkonice 3+ goals
24%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
59%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
22%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
74%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 1.48 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jednota Bánová attack 0.93 + Podkonice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Podkonice scores more
57%
level
24%
Jednota Bánová scores more
19%

Podkonice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Podkonice 0–0 Jednota Bánová

Podkonice and Jednota Bánová drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.