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Podkonice vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
9/18/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podkonice44%
×Draw26%
Hamsik Academy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
1.45
Hamsik Academy
1.15

Podkonice creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Podkonice
1.48
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Podkonice
0.85
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
70%
Podkonice or Hamsik Academy
74%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
56%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
21%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
77%
Podkonice 2+ goals
42%
Podkonice 3+ goals
18%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
68%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
32%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
59%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 1.48 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Podkonice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Podkonice scores more
44%
level
26%
Hamsik Academy scores more
30%

Podkonice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Podkonice 2–0 Hamsik Academy

Podkonice beat Hamsik Academy 2-0 in 3. liga - West on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.