Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1–0 Volyn Lutsk II

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volyn Lutsk II

V. Kaverin 28'

9/12/2020

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 2Stadion Podillya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi67%

×Draw23%

Volyn Lutsk II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiExpected goals in this matchVolyn Lutsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.52

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.71

Volyn Lutsk II

0.52

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 229% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 12 away

1.58

creates per match

0.42

0.62

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.58

Volyn Lutsk II

0.42

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

0.62

Volyn Lutsk II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Volyn Lutsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Volyn Lutsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw

89%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Volyn Lutsk II

77%

Draw or Volyn Lutsk II

33%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

39%

Volyn Lutsk II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

82%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

51%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

24%

Volyn Lutsk II 1+ goals

41%

Volyn Lutsk II 2+ goals

10%

Volyn Lutsk II 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

86%

Volyn Lutsk II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Volyn Lutsk II away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.58 + Volyn Lutsk II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Volyn Lutsk II attack 0.42 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

67%

level

23%

Volyn Lutsk II scores more

11%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

V. Kaverin

46'

V. Olkhovych← B. Kobzar

59'

D. Teslyuk← O. Chernov

72'

N. Kuzmych← S. Krystin

77'

A. Panasenkov← V. Prylyopa

82'

R. Khudik← V. Kaverin

84'

A. Galeta← D. Zaderetskyi

90'

Y. Shpikula← A. Romanyuk

Podillya

Volyn

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: V. Kostyshyn

77'▲A. Panasenkov←▼V. Prylyopa

82'▲R. Khudik←▼V. Kaverin

84'▲A. Galeta←▼D. Zaderetskyi

90'▲Y. Shpikula←▼A. Romanyuk

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

PanasenkovKhudikGaletaShpikula

Manager: A. Shakhov

46'▲V. Olkhovych←▼B. Kobzar

59'▲D. Teslyuk←▼O. Chernov

72'▲N. Kuzmych←▼S. Krystin

Volyn Lutsk II substitutes

OlkhovychTeslyukKuzmych