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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
1 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
P. Serafin 42'
P. Skalecki 60'
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ30%
×Draw25%
Wisła Puławy45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.24
Wisła Puławy
1.59

Wisła Puławy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
55%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Wisła Puławy
75%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
70%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
12%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
71%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
35%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
13%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
80%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
47%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
40%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
30%
level
25%
Wisła Puławy scores more
45%

Wisła Puławy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
P. Serafin
60'
P. Skalecki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podhale Nowy Targ 1–1 Wisła Puławy

Podhale Nowy Targ and Wisła Puławy drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 8, 2021.

Goals: P. Serafin (42'), P. Skalecki (60').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.