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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
5/18/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ55%
×Draw22%
Sokół Sieniawa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.95
Sokół Sieniawa
1.18

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 65% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 71 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
77%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Sokół Sieniawa
78%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
45%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
32%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
86%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
58%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
31%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
69%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
71%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
55%
level
22%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
23%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Sokół Sieniawa

Podhale Nowy Targ beat Sokół Sieniawa 5-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.