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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ63%
×Draw20%
Karpaty Krosno17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
2.15
Karpaty Krosno
1.01

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 113% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 17 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
83%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Karpaty Krosno
80%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
37%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
40%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
88%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
63%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
36%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
64%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
27%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
79%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.15

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
63%
level
20%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
17%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Karpaty Krosno

Podhale Nowy Targ and Karpaty Krosno drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.