Podhale Nowy Targ 0–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Podhale Nowy Targ

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

8/23/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ54%

×Draw23%

Garbarnia Kraków24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podhale Nowy TargExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.19

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.89

Garbarnia Kraków

1.19

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 59% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

1.29

1.08

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.83

Garbarnia Kraków

1.29

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.08

Garbarnia Kraków

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw

76%

Podhale Nowy Targ or Garbarnia Kraków

77%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

46%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

31%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

85%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

56%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

29%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

70%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

33%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

69%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.89

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

54%

level

23%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

24%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff