Nesebar 2–1 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Nesebar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Arda Kardzhali

8/25/2018

Second League · Round 5Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nesebar28%

×Draw28%

Arda Kardzhali44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NesebarExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.34

Nesebar

1.00

Arda Kardzhali

1.34

Arda Kardzhali creates 34% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.42

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Nesebar

1.14

Arda Kardzhali

1.27

allows per match

Nesebar

1.42

Arda Kardzhali

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw

56%

Nesebar or Arda Kardzhali

72%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

72%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+

10%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals

63%

Nesebar 2+ goals

26%

Nesebar 3+ goals

8%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

74%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

39%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)

39%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 1.14 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Nesebar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nesebar scores more

28%

level

28%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

44%

Arda Kardzhali at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff