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Podbrezová vs Zbrojovka Brno — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Podbrezová
Podbrezová
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
6/25/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TJ Slovan Červeník futbalový štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Podbrezová53%
×Draw21%
Zbrojovka Brno26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbrezová
2.08
Zbrojovka Brno
1.42

Podbrezová creates 46% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Podbrezová
2.48
Zbrojovka Brno
1.67

allows per match

Podbrezová
1.17
Zbrojovka Brno
1.67

finishing

Podbrezová+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbrezová ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Podbrezová or draw
74%
Podbrezová or Zbrojovka Brno
79%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno
47%

Winning margin

Podbrezová wins by 2+
31%
Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Podbrezová 1+ goals
87%
Podbrezová 2+ goals
61%
Podbrezová 3+ goals
34%
Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
76%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
41%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podbrezová (draw refunded)
67%
Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbrezová at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbrezová attack 2.48 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.67 + Podbrezová defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Podbrezová scores more
53%
level
21%
Zbrojovka Brno scores more
26%

Podbrezová at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Podbrezová 4–2 Zbrojovka Brno

Podbrezová beat Zbrojovka Brno 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at TJ Slovan Červeník futbalový štadión in Červeník.