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Podbrezová vs Rohožník — 2. liga 2019

Podbrezová
Podbrezová
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rohožník
Rohožník
7/30/20212. liga2. liga · Round 2ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Podbrezová67%
×Draw19%
Rohožník14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbrezová
2.27
Rohožník
0.93

Podbrezová creates 144% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 15 away

creates per match

Podbrezová
2.61
Rohožník
1.00

allows per match

Podbrezová
0.85
Rohožník
1.93

finishing

Podbrezová+0.00on par
Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbrezová ↓

Rohožník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Podbrezová or draw
86%
Podbrezová or Rohožník
81%
Draw or Rohožník
33%

Winning margin

Podbrezová wins by 2+
44%
Rohožník wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Podbrezová 1+ goals
90%
Podbrezová 2+ goals
66%
Podbrezová 3+ goals
39%
Rohožník 1+ goals
61%
Rohožník 2+ goals
24%
Rohožník 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Podbrezová (draw refunded)
83%
Rohožník (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbrezová at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.85 · 41 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbrezová attack 2.61 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.27

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Podbrezová defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Podbrezová scores more
67%
level
19%
Rohožník scores more
14%

Podbrezová at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Podbrezová 2–1 Rohožník

Podbrezová beat Rohožník 2-1 in 2. liga on July 30, 2021.

The match was played at ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová in Podbrezová.