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Podbrezová vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Podbrezová
Podbrezová
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
10/27/2023League #332League #332 · Round 12ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Podbrezová43%
×Draw24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbrezová
1.65
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.43

Podbrezová creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Podbrezová
1.67
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.07

allows per match

Podbrezová
1.78
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.64

finishing

Podbrezová+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbrezová ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Podbrezová or draw
67%
Podbrezová or Dukla Banská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
57%

Winning margin

Podbrezová wins by 2+
22%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Podbrezová 1+ goals
81%
Podbrezová 2+ goals
49%
Podbrezová 3+ goals
23%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
76%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
42%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podbrezová (draw refunded)
56%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbrezová at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbrezová attack 1.67 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.07 + Podbrezová defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podbrezová scores more
43%
level
24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
33%

Podbrezová at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #332: Podbrezová 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica

Podbrezová and Dukla Banská Bystrica drew 2-2 in League #332 on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová in Podbrezová.