Podbeskidzie 1–3 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

Podbeskidzie

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stomil Olsztyn

8/4/2018

I Liga · Round 3Stadion Miejski (Bielsko-Biała)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Podbeskidzie48%

×Draw26%

Stomil Olsztyn26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodbeskidzieExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.00

Podbeskidzie

1.47

Stomil Olsztyn

1.00

Podbeskidzie creates 47% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

1.59

creates per match

0.88

1.13

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Podbeskidzie

1.59

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

Podbeskidzie

1.13

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw

74%

Podbeskidzie or Stomil Olsztyn

74%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

52%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

24%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

77%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

43%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

18%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

63%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

26%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

65%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.59 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more

48%

level

26%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

26%

Podbeskidzie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Podbeskidzie 1–3 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Podbeskidzie 3-1 in I Liga on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski (Bielsko-Biała).

Podbeskidzie vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

I Liga: Podbeskidzie 1–3 Stomil Olsztyn