Podbeskidzie 2–2 Resovia Rzeszów: Result & Stats

Podbeskidzie

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Resovia Rzeszów

2/17/2024

I Liga · Round 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Podbeskidzie48%

×Draw25%

Resovia Rzeszów27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodbeskidzieExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.16

Podbeskidzie

1.64

Resovia Rzeszów

1.16

Podbeskidzie creates 41% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

1.59

creates per match

1.19

1.13

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Podbeskidzie

1.59

Resovia Rzeszów

1.19

allows per match

Podbeskidzie

1.13

Resovia Rzeszów

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw

73%

Podbeskidzie or Resovia Rzeszów

75%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

52%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

25%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

81%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

49%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

23%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

69%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

32%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

64%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.59 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more

48%

level

25%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

27%

Podbeskidzie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff