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Podbeskidzie vs Pawłowice Śląskie — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
FT
9 – 2
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko piłkarskie LKS Wapienica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Podbeskidzie78%
×Draw11%
Pawłowice Śląskie11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
4.46
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.75

Podbeskidzie creates 155% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
2.60
Pawłowice Śląskie
2.00

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.50
Pawłowice Śląskie
6.33

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
89%
Podbeskidzie or Pawłowice Śląskie
89%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
22%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
62%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
99%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
92%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
79%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
83%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
52%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
88%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 2.00, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 2.60 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.46

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 2.00 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
78%
level
11%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
11%

Podbeskidzie at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podbeskidzie vs Pawłowice Śląskie

Podbeskidzie beat Pawłowice Śląskie 9-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Boisko piłkarskie LKS Wapienica in Bielsko-Biała.