Podbeskidzie 1–2 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Podbeskidzie

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Motor Lublin

2/28/2024

I Liga · Round 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Podbeskidzie37%

×Draw27%

Motor Lublin35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodbeskidzieExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Podbeskidzie

1.25

Motor Lublin

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 18 away

1.57

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Podbeskidzie

1.57

Motor Lublin

1.28

allows per match

Podbeskidzie

1.14

Motor Lublin

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw

65%

Podbeskidzie or Motor Lublin

73%

Draw or Motor Lublin

63%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

16%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

71%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

36%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

13%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

70%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

34%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

51%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 84 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.57 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more

37%

level

27%

Motor Lublin scores more

35%

Podbeskidzie at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff