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Podbeskidzie vs Hutnik Kraków — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko piłkarskie LKS Wapienica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Podbeskidzie57%
×Draw19%
Hutnik Kraków24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
2.45
Hutnik Kraków
1.55

Podbeskidzie creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
2.60
Hutnik Kraków
1.60

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.50
Hutnik Kraków
2.30

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Hutnik Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
76%
Podbeskidzie or Hutnik Kraków
81%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków
43%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
36%
Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
91%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
70%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
44%
Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
79%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
46%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
71%
Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 2.60 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.45

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.60 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
57%
level
19%
Hutnik Kraków scores more
24%

Podbeskidzie at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Podbeskidzie 5–2 Hutnik Kraków

Podbeskidzie beat Hutnik Kraków 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Boisko piłkarskie LKS Wapienica in Bielsko-Biała.