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Podbeskidzie vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
3/16/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 24Stadion Miejski (Bielsko-Biała)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podbeskidzie46%
×Draw24%
Bytovia Bytów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
1.68
Bytovia Bytów
1.30

Podbeskidzie creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
1.59
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.13
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
70%
Podbeskidzie or Bytovia Bytów
76%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
54%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
24%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
81%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
50%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
24%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
73%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
37%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
61%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.59 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
46%
level
24%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
30%

Podbeskidzie at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podbeskidzie vs Bytovia Bytów

Podbeskidzie beat Bytovia Bytów 3-1 in I Liga on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski (Bielsko-Biała).