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Podbeskidzie vs Borac Banja Luka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
CANC
00:00
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
2/5/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Podbeskidzie40%
×Draw21%
Borac Banja Luka39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
2.60
Borac Banja Luka
2.40

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.50
Borac Banja Luka
1.40

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
61%
Podbeskidzie or Borac Banja Luka
79%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
60%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
22%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
86%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
59%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
32%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
86%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
58%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
51%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 2.60 + Borac Banja Luka defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.40 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
40%
level
21%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
39%

Podbeskidzie at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Podbeskidzie face Borac Banja Luka (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Podbeskidzie hosting Borac Banja Luka. Match starts February 5, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Podbeskidzie host Borac Banja Luka at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.