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Poconé vs Rondonopolis EC — Matogrossense 2 2024

Poconé
Poconé
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rondonopolis EC
Rondonopolis EC
5/26/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Apolônio Bouret de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poconé12%
×Draw20%
Rondonopolis EC69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poconé
0.67
Rondonopolis EC
2.00

Rondonopolis EC creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Poconé
1.00
Rondonopolis EC
3.33

allows per match

Poconé
0.67
Rondonopolis EC
0.33

finishing

Poconé+0.00on par
Rondonopolis EC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poconé ↓

Rondonopolis EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Poconé or draw
31%
Poconé or Rondonopolis EC
80%
Draw or Rondonopolis EC
88%

Winning margin

Poconé wins by 2+
3%
Rondonopolis EC wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Poconé 1+ goals
49%
Poconé 2+ goals
15%
Poconé 3+ goals
3%
Rondonopolis EC 1+ goals
86%
Rondonopolis EC 2+ goals
59%
Rondonopolis EC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Poconé (draw refunded)
14%
Rondonopolis EC (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poconé at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Rondonopolis EC away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poconé attack 1.00 + Rondonopolis EC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Rondonopolis EC attack 3.33 + Poconé defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Poconé scores more
12%
level
20%
Rondonopolis EC scores more
69%

Rondonopolis EC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rondonopolis EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poconé vs Rondonopolis EC

Poconé and Rondonopolis EC drew 1-1 in Matogrossense 2 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Apolônio Bouret de Melo in Chapada dos Guimarães, Mato Grosso.