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Poconé vs Paulistano MT — Matogrossense 2 2024

Poconé
Poconé
CANC
19:00
Paulistano MT
Paulistano MT
5/11/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Apolônio Bouret de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poconé57%
×Draw29%
Paulistano MT14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poconé
1.33
Paulistano MT
0.50

Poconé creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Poconé
1.00
Paulistano MT
0.33

allows per match

Poconé
0.67
Paulistano MT
1.67

finishing

Poconé+0.00on par
Paulistano MT+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poconé ↓

Paulistano MT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Poconé or draw
86%
Poconé or Paulistano MT
71%
Draw or Paulistano MT
43%

Winning margin

Poconé wins by 2+
28%
Paulistano MT wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Poconé 1+ goals
74%
Poconé 2+ goals
38%
Poconé 3+ goals
15%
Paulistano MT 1+ goals
39%
Paulistano MT 2+ goals
9%
Paulistano MT 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Poconé (draw refunded)
80%
Paulistano MT (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poconé at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Paulistano MT away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poconé attack 1.00 + Paulistano MT defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Paulistano MT attack 0.33 + Poconé defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Poconé scores more
57%
level
29%
Paulistano MT scores more
14%

Poconé at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Poconé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poconé host Paulistano MT

May 11, 2024: Poconé take on Paulistano MT in Matogrossense 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poconé host Paulistano MT at Estádio Municipal Apolônio Bouret de Melo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.