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Pocheon vs Siheung Citizen — K3 League 2026

Pocheon
Pocheon
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Siheung Citizen
Siheung Citizen
4/19/2026K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 7Pocheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Pocheon36%
×Draw27%
Siheung Citizen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pocheon
1.23
Siheung Citizen
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 61 away

creates per match

Pocheon
1.36
Siheung Citizen
1.43

allows per match

Pocheon
1.07
Siheung Citizen
1.10

finishing

Pocheon+0.00on par
Siheung Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pocheon ↓

Siheung Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pocheon or draw
63%
Pocheon or Siheung Citizen
73%
Draw or Siheung Citizen
64%

Winning margin

Pocheon wins by 2+
15%
Siheung Citizen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pocheon 1+ goals
71%
Pocheon 2+ goals
35%
Pocheon 3+ goals
13%
Siheung Citizen 1+ goals
71%
Siheung Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Siheung Citizen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pocheon (draw refunded)
49%
Siheung Citizen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pocheon at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Siheung Citizen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pocheon attack 1.36 + Siheung Citizen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Siheung Citizen attack 1.43 + Pocheon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pocheon scores more
36%
level
27%
Siheung Citizen scores more
37%

Siheung Citizen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Siheung Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pocheon vs Siheung Citizen

Siheung Citizen beat Pocheon 2-1 in K3 League on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Pocheon Stadium in Pocheon.