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Pocheon vs Changwon City — K3 League 2026

Pocheon
Pocheon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Changwon City
Changwon City
4/13/2024K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 5Pocheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Pocheon41%
×Draw28%
Changwon City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pocheon
1.27
Changwon City
1.05

Pocheon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 107 away

creates per match

Pocheon
1.36
Changwon City
1.03

allows per match

Pocheon
1.07
Changwon City
1.19

finishing

Pocheon+0.00on par
Changwon City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pocheon ↓

Changwon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pocheon or draw
69%
Pocheon or Changwon City
72%
Draw or Changwon City
59%

Winning margin

Pocheon wins by 2+
19%
Changwon City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pocheon 1+ goals
72%
Pocheon 2+ goals
36%
Pocheon 3+ goals
14%
Changwon City 1+ goals
65%
Changwon City 2+ goals
28%
Changwon City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pocheon (draw refunded)
57%
Changwon City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pocheon at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Changwon City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pocheon attack 1.36 + Changwon City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Changwon City attack 1.03 + Pocheon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pocheon scores more
41%
level
28%
Changwon City scores more
31%

Pocheon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pocheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pocheon vs Changwon City

Pocheon and Changwon City drew 1-1 in K3 League on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Pocheon Stadium in Pocheon.