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Poblense vs Sóller — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sóller
Sóller
1/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 18Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Poblense71%
×Draw18%
Sóller10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
2.18
Sóller
0.69

Poblense creates 216% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Sóller
0.88

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Sóller
2.05

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Sóller+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Sóller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
90%
Poblense or Sóller
82%
Draw or Sóller
29%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
47%
Sóller wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
89%
Poblense 2+ goals
64%
Poblense 3+ goals
37%
Sóller 1+ goals
50%
Sóller 2+ goals
15%
Sóller 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
87%
Sóller (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Sóller away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.05 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Sóller defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.18

Sóller attack 0.88 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Poblense scores more
71%
level
18%
Sóller scores more
10%

Poblense at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poblense vs Sóller

Poblense beat Sóller 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.