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Poblense vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Poblense57%
×Draw25%
Penya Independent18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
1.61
Penya Independent
0.79

Poblense creates 104% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
82%
Poblense or Penya Independent
75%
Draw or Penya Independent
43%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
31%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
80%
Poblense 2+ goals
48%
Poblense 3+ goals
22%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
55%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
19%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
76%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Poblense scores more
57%
level
25%
Penya Independent scores more
18%

Poblense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Poblense 2–1 Penya Independent

Poblense beat Penya Independent 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.