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Poblense vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Poblense
Poblense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
11/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Poblense43%
×Draw30%
Getafe II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
1.16
Getafe II
0.85

Poblense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Poblense
1.23
Getafe II
0.62

allows per match

Poblense
1.08
Getafe II
1.08

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
73%
Poblense or Getafe II
70%
Draw or Getafe II
57%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
18%
Getafe II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
69%
Poblense 2+ goals
32%
Poblense 3+ goals
11%
Getafe II 1+ goals
57%
Getafe II 2+ goals
21%
Getafe II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
62%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 1.23 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Poblense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Poblense scores more
43%
level
30%
Getafe II scores more
27%

Poblense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poblense vs Getafe II

Poblense and Getafe II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.