Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Poblense vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
CANC
00:00
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Poblense69%
×Draw19%
Ferriolense12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
2.13
Ferriolense
0.77

Poblense creates 177% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 28 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
88%
Poblense or Ferriolense
81%
Draw or Ferriolense
31%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
44%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
88%
Poblense 2+ goals
63%
Poblense 3+ goals
35%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
54%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
18%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
85%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Poblense scores more
69%
level
19%
Ferriolense scores more
12%

Poblense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Poblense face Ferriolense (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Poblense hosting Ferriolense. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Poblense host Ferriolense at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.