Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Poblense vs Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Campos
Campos
9/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Poblense73%
×Draw17%
Campos10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
2.29
Campos
0.71

Poblense creates 223% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Campos
0.92

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Campos
2.27

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
90%
Poblense or Campos
83%
Draw or Campos
27%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
49%
Campos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
90%
Poblense 2+ goals
66%
Poblense 3+ goals
40%
Campos 1+ goals
51%
Campos 2+ goals
16%
Campos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
88%
Campos (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Campos away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Campos defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.29

Campos attack 0.92 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Poblense scores more
73%
level
17%
Campos scores more
10%

Poblense at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Poblense 4–0 Campos

Poblense beat Campos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.