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Poblense vs Alcúdia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alcúdia
Alcúdia
9/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Poblense68%
×Draw19%
Alcúdia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
2.17
Alcúdia
0.82

Poblense creates 165% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 79 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Alcúdia
1.15

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Alcúdia
2.03

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Alcúdia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Alcúdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
87%
Poblense or Alcúdia
81%
Draw or Alcúdia
32%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
44%
Alcúdia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
89%
Poblense 2+ goals
64%
Poblense 3+ goals
36%
Alcúdia 1+ goals
56%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
20%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
84%
Alcúdia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Alcúdia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.03 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Alcúdia defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alcúdia attack 1.15 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Poblense scores more
68%
level
19%
Alcúdia scores more
13%

Poblense at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poblense vs Alcúdia

Poblense beat Alcúdia 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.