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Pobla Mafumet vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Pobla Mafumet49%
×Draw26%
Vilafranca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobla Mafumet
1.48
Vilafranca
0.97

Pobla Mafumet creates 53% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet
1.36
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet
0.81
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw
75%
Pobla Mafumet or Vilafranca
74%
Draw or Vilafranca
51%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
25%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
77%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
43%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
19%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
62%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
25%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
66%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more
49%
level
26%
Vilafranca scores more
25%

Pobla Mafumet at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Vilafranca

Pobla Mafumet beat Vilafranca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.