Pobla Mafumet 2–4 Valls: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Valls

Jordi Oribe 22' (pen), 4'

Sergi Gomez 89'

Aleix Ruiz 52' (pen)

Cesc Martínez 48' (pen)

Albert Plana 41'

12/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pobla Mafumet48%

×Draw29%

Valls23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.77

Pobla Mafumet

1.25

Valls

0.77

Pobla Mafumet creates 62% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

0.73

0.81

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Valls →

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

77%

Pobla Mafumet or Valls

71%

Draw or Valls

52%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

22%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

71%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

36%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

13%

Valls 1+ goals

54%

Valls 2+ goals

18%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

68%

Valls (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Valls attack 0.73 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

48%

level

29%

Valls scores more

23%

Pobla Mafumet at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Jordi Oribe

21'

Guillem Martínez← Bernat Guiu

22'

Jordi OribePenalty

41'

Albert Plana

48'

Cesc MartínezPenalty

51'

Ricard Robledo← Daniel Molina

52'

Aleix RuizPenalty

62'

Jordi Estivill← Aleix Ruiz

62'

Sergi Gestí← Albert Plana

62'

Sergi Gomez← Joel Marigot

68'

Arnau Cucurull← Cesc Martínez

76'

Ramón Miranda← Sergi Masqué

77'

Óscar Gómez← K. LKoucha

89'

Sergi Gomez

Pobla

Valls

Gonzo

Riki

Miro

⚽

▼

Ruiz

Torre

⚽

▼

Plana

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Albert Company

21'▲Guillem Martínez←▼Bernat Guiu

51'▲Ricard Robledo←▼Daniel Molina

77'▲Óscar Gómez←▼K. LKoucha

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

MartínezRobledoGómez

Manager: Joan Pallarés

62'▲Jordi Estivill←▼Aleix Ruiz

62'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Albert Plana

62'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Joel Marigot

68'▲Arnau Cucurull←▼Cesc Martínez

76'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Sergi Masqué

Valls substitutes

EstivillGestíGomezCucurullMiranda

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 2–4 Valls

Valls beat Pobla Mafumet 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 6, 2020.

Goals: Jordi Oribe (4', 22' pen), Albert Plana (41'), Cesc Martínez (48' pen), Aleix Ruiz (52' pen), Sergi Gomez (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.

Pobla Mafumet vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 2–4 Valls