Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Montañesa: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montañesa

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pobla Mafumet53%

×Draw27%

Montañesa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchMontañesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.75

Pobla Mafumet

1.42

Montañesa

0.75

Pobla Mafumet creates 89% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

1.36

creates per match

0.68

0.81

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Montañesa

0.68

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Montañesa

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Montañesa →

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

80%

Pobla Mafumet or Montañesa

73%

Draw or Montañesa

47%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

26%

Montañesa wins by 2+

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

76%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

41%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

17%

Montañesa 1+ goals

53%

Montañesa 2+ goals

17%

Montañesa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

73%

Montañesa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

53%

level

27%

Montañesa scores more

20%

Pobla Mafumet at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff