Pobla Mafumet 4–0 Guineueta: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Guineueta

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pobla Mafumet59%

×Draw25%

Guineueta16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchGuineueta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.69

Pobla Mafumet

1.58

Guineueta

0.69

Pobla Mafumet creates 129% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 16 away

1.36

creates per match

0.56

0.81

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Guineueta

0.56

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Guineueta

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Guineueta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Guineueta →

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

84%

Pobla Mafumet or Guineueta

75%

Draw or Guineueta

41%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

32%

Guineueta wins by 2+

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

79%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

47%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

21%

Guineueta 1+ goals

50%

Guineueta 2+ goals

15%

Guineueta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

78%

Guineueta (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Guineueta away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Guineueta defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Guineueta attack 0.56 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

59%

level

25%

Guineueta scores more

16%

Pobla Mafumet at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 4–0 Guineueta

Pobla Mafumet beat Guineueta 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.

Pobla Mafumet vs Guineueta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 4–0 Guineueta